Conditional on large-scale conflict between robots and humans before 2100, will at least one robot use a sword as a weapon?

#AI Impacts #Futurism

Ṁ293

Ṁ200

2100

15%

chance

ALL

"Large-scale" means at least 1000 robots or humans. "Sword" means Wikipedia's definition: A sword is an edged, bladed weapon intended for manual cutting or thrusting.

The market will be resolved according to my judgement.

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predicts NO

Why is this closed?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Sorry, it was just closed because I'm an idiot and set the wrong close date.

Does it have to be a "real" conflict? Or would a mock battle that both sides chose to engage in for fun count?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing real conflicts only, though if robots use swords as part of a psyop or something, that would count.

@meefburger Can the robots be human-controlled? e.g. one country sends robots with swords to take over another country?

And confirming what you mean by psyop: information warfare counts? An AI manufacturing a political scandal that involves a sword will resolve this to YES?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Sorry for the lack of clarity and thanks for the questions!

For a YES resolution:

1. At least one robot must use a sword as a weapon, where a "sword" is "an edged, bladed weapon intended for manual cutting or thrusting". Since the blades on those drone-fired hellfire missiles are not (in my view) "intended for manual cutting or thrusting", they don't count. If the robot uses a sword for reasons other than its effectiveness as a weapon (e.g. because it's scary), this counts.
2. This robot must be autonomous, though it may be acting on behalf of one or more humans or human institutions
3. This robot must be part of a physical conflict involving a total of at least 1000 humans or 1000 robots, in which one side's forces are exclusively or primarily robots and the other side is primarily humans or human-controlled robots. A single battle, a clearly-defined front in a war, or an entire war can count, so long as it's clearly cutting reality at a joint other than the use/non-use of robots. So the Battle of Mogadishu and the Normandy Landings count as "conflicts", but the general practice of engaging in drone strikes in Pakistan does not.

A political scandal involving a sword doesn't itself count, though a conflict that is part of a scandal or orchestrated to cause one may count. A conflict with the primary aim of political impact (e.g. terrorism) qualifies, so long as it meets the three conditions above.

bought Ṁ186 of NO

@meefburger No need to apologize, it's never possible to be exact on stuff like this. I just ask about the things I need to know in order to be confident placing a bet. :)

By the way, this might be my favorite AI question on Manifold so far.