I'm actually very curious how people think this could resolve yes. To me this should be in the single digit %. Might not seem like it but 2030 is in just 6 years.

Military robots

Sure they kill but there is simply no reason for them to be in a humanoid shape, so 0% chance.

Warehouse robots

They would have some potential for this question. Like if they were to make a stack of heavy things fall, it could do some damage. But so far it looks like the ones that are of humanoid shape do human-like tasks like carrying a box or two, sorting and packing stuff. Nothing very dangerous. The literal heavy-lifting is left to non-humanoid ones. A self-driving forklift for example could be more dangerous but it does not qualify for this market.

Housework robots

Manifold says 34% chance of a general household robot developed by 2030. Odds of accidents are likely going to be extremely low given the amount of testing that will go into mass production units and the scrutiny such products will have. And then what are the odds of an accident being fatal given we are talking housework, not driving on a highway? So 34% X very low odds of an accident X very low odds of accidents being fatal.

Okay what if it's open-source? I think it is very likely that anything cheap or open-source pre-2030 will have wheels, like Aloha, because it's just a lot easier and cheaper. If it has wheels instead of legs it does not qualify as humanoid according to this market.

Other scenarios

• Intentionally making a humanoid murder bot? It takes a psychopath to build one and there's no advantage to make it humanoid for the same reasons military robots are not humanoid.

• Suicide by robot? It would have to be by someone who really wants to send a message. I imagine someone who thinks robots have ruined their life and society. Are we actually going to be living in this dystopia within 6 years? Very unlikely to me.

• Accident during development or testing. Odds of accidents are certainly higher during development but again, it's being tested lifting boxes and washing dishes. It weighs as much as a regular human and walks as fast too. It's not a speeding car or a circus robot juggling chainsaws.

Some relevant facts:

• Time between when Tesla's Optimus was announced and now is 2.5 years.

• 2030 is in under 6 years.

• Optimus Gen 2 weighs about 140 lbs / 63 kg.

• /MatthewBarnett/will-a-reliable-and-general-househo

@SIMOROBO YouTuber gives gun to humanoid robot as a gaffe, accidentally shoots his buddy

@NivlacM Thanks for the answer. You think a mass-produced humanoid robot, for example Tesla's Optimus, will not recognize a gun and will accept to hold it? You think a legitimate open-source alternative with legs will exist by 2030? I personally don't think so.

@SIMOROBO I'll definitely bet against Optimus having built in restrictions for what it will interact with

@NivlacM

Is a gun "aided by other tech"?

@NivlacM No, guns are fine, as long as it’s not built in to the humanoid

I think humanoid makes this near zero. We have human-killing robots, they aren't humanoid, there's no reason to make them humanoid.

@MartinRandall One reason to anthropomorphize an AI would be to make them more relatable and engaging. It's a common design spec. Not a requisite for "killer robots," obviously, but a security guard or doorman robot would make sense to make look human.

Is two arms on a moving chassis of some sort enough to qualify as humanoid?

@GazDownright No, must have arms, legs, torso, and head.

At least one case of "Suicide by robot" seems like a serious possibility to me.