This market resolves YES once at least one publicly documented product exists that is explicitly marketed and used as a robot bodyguard. If no such documentation can be provided the market resolves to NO in January of 2036
or resolution, “robot bodyguard” means:
A physical autonomous or semi-autonomous machine (not just remote-controlled drones or turrets).
Specifically designed and marketed to provide personal protection to humans against physical threats in urban settings (not just property surveillance or military combat robots).
Must be deployed with a private customer (individual, celebrity, executive, politician, etc.) and official security service, outside of experimental lab settings.
Examples that would count:
A humanoid or quadruped robot that follows its client and can physically block, deter, or restrain threats.
A drone swarm designed to accompany a person and actively prevent harm.
Examples that would not count:
Stationary home security systems.
General-purpose robots (like household helpers) without explicit bodyguard functionality.
Purely military robots used only in combat zones.
Evidence for resolution can include: credible news articles, government procurement records, manufacturer announcements, or third-party verification of deployment.
This market will resolve YES immediately once at least two distinct individuals (e.g., celebrities, executives, politicians) are credibly documented as employing a robotic bodyguard for personal protection. Demonstrations by the robot’s manufacturer do not qualify unless an unrelated party is also verifiably using the robot in that capacity. Manufacturer self-use and marketing stunts are excluded.
The two documented cases do not need to involve the same product for the market to resolve YES.
Product announcements, prototypes, or staged demonstrations do not count unless the robot is in actual use outside of the manufacturer’s control.
As a special rule, Elon Musk jokingly presenting Optimus as his own bodyguard is excluded.
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