By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️

1kṀ2232

2051

10%

chance

ALL

Resolution Criteria

YES Resolution: This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2050, it is confirmed that autonomous robots have fully taken over the roles previously held by human soldiers in direct combat situations on the frontline.

NO Resolution: If human soldiers are still actively serving in frontline combat roles by the end of 2050, the market resolves to NO.

Scope of Replacement: Full replacement means human soldiers are no longer deployed in roles that involve direct engagement with enemy forces, including but not limited to ground combat, reconnaissance in hostile territories, and direct assault operations.

Confirmation Source: The resolution will be based on official statements from major world military organizations, defence ministries, or reputable global defence news sources.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will humanoid robots be deployed to combat before 2035?

48% chance

Will we see autonomous humanoid farmer robots by the end of 2025?

5% chance

Will there be more robots than humans by 2100?

81% chance

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

22% chance

Conditional on large-scale conflict between robots and humans before 2100, will at least one robot use a sword as a weapon?

18% chance

Will there be more humanoid robots than humans before 2100?

60% chance

Will >50% of human physical labor be replaced by robots before 2030?

18% chance

Will AI replace doctors by 2050?

46% chance

Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?

9% chance

Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?

Sort by:

Is this about all militaries the world over? Like if there's any ongoing conflict that involves frontline human soldiers anywhere in the world, this resolves NO? Also, how does this resolve if for some reason there are no active military conflicts in 2050?

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge If there is no war or military conflict in 2050, the question will resolve to NO, as the premise of the question assumes the existence of such roles for replacement.

On one side, or the whole conflict?

@abledbody Great question! Since the question is about "completely" replacing humans, the idea here is about the shift happening across the entire spectrum of a conflict, not just being limited to one party or side.