Make two subsidized real-money markets on the stock price of each Fortune 500 firm, one market conditional on its CEO stepping down by quarter’s end, and the other conditional on not stepping down. The difference between these two prices would advice the board on dumping the CEO. –Robin Hanson
Resolves YES if any real-money prediction market provides the two-per-company markets. A restriction to a subset (e.g. the top 10 companies) is still acceptable if it is clearly traceable to Hanson's idea. Changes in the Fortune 500 list are not relevant.
Play-money markets like Manifold or Metaculus are not relevant because the plan includes that the CEOs will try to manipulate the markets and thus provide liquidity.
Markets need to be available for actual trading. An announcement is not sufficient.
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@Jotto999 Interesting question. I'm tending towards no unless it changes the character of Manifold significantly and I don't expect that it would.
@MaxPayne Right, needing real money is relevant in the criteria. But the description wording makes it sound like the CEO manipulation part is relevant (it's not).