Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
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The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013. In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
The market resolves to NO if:
The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
The AfD merges with another party and runs under a different name
The market will resolve based on the official final results as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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