If Erdogan is NOT re-elected, will Sweden join NATO by July?
Politics•Geopolitics•NATO•Sweden•Turkey
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Ṁ330
resolved Jun 10
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N/A

If Erdogan is re-elected by the close date, this resolves N/A no matter if Sweden joins NATO.

Resolves YES if Sweden has officially joined NATO before July 1, 2023. For Finland that was April 4. Just an announcement or joining on July 1 is not sufficient.

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@marktweise please resolve N/A

predicted YES

Surely this resolves N/A now?

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-eeb46646206b

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-f677c48dd2b7

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d

predicted NO

for the life of me, cannot figure out when new government would be seated if Erdogan loses, but getting All Of The Things done in <1 month (election results announced June 1st if runoff) + getting Hungary on board in time is unlikely

Turns out, Metaculus also added this question.

When Finland was ready to join turkey immediately dropped its veto, Sweden will be the same.

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