Will Sweden join NATO by the end of August?
➕
Plus
147
Ṁ86k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
sold Ṁ1,196 NO

Thanks for your marbles. On to the next one. :3 (Let's hope Sweden's irrelevant misfortune keeps up...)

Turkey's Parliament called in despite the summer holiday, but supposedly not for Sweden/NATO according to TT.

At least now it becomes difficult to keep playing the charade that they can't, if they wanted to.

Is my read correct that the below linked question is the main hinge for this question? (As well as other, smaller ones)

predicted NO

@HenriThunberg I think so too. However, this question is not completely clear what the actual „join“ event is.

@MaxPayne The original metaculus market: "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the January 1, 2024, declares that Sweden has joined NATO". Obviously here the date is different.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/

I believe Hungary is going to vote on this after the summer recess. Is there some reason to be confident they'll convene an extraordinary session to vote on this?

@na_pewno I don't see any reason for urgency. Sweden is already collaborating closely with NATO troops and there is no immediate risk for them.

On the other hand, maybe Stoltenberg is on a roll. 😆

No one's noted this yet, so I will.

I am not convinced that Sweden will join NATO at any point until the current de facto ruling ideology of Turkey changes or NATO drops its universal vetos. Additionally, I do not believe that any Western power will have the guts to coup Erdogan, either.

This is fine, though - Finland is in NATO now, and it's not like Putin can seriously invade Sweden given that the two countries don't even share a land border. Any such invasion would have to go through Norway (in NATO), Finland (soon to be in NATO), or be a primarily naval invasion from the Kaliningrad Oblast through the Baltic Sea (not remotely stealthy, would piss off like a dozen bordering NATO members, probably wouldn't even work).

Below: a picture of the above. Note particularly how utterly garbage the entirety of the two land attack routes would be if Russia tried to invade or really fight at all in winter.

In conclusion, Sweden is going to become Austria/Switzerland/Lichtenstein. (Or to a lesser extent Serbia/Kosovo. Or Ireland, if you really squint.)

@Lorxus ok if I lose 100 mana on No, I am blaming you Mr Smart Guy with Maps

@Lorxus So, has this aged like milk?

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius Not as far as I'm concerned. I'll start worrying when Erdogan does anything substantive.

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius So, has this aged like milk?

@Lorxus My comment certainly has, I was certainly too rash. Especially seeing how neither Turkey nor Hungary are voting on it anytime soon. I do still believe Sweden will join NATO, however.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules