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Thanks for your marbles. On to the next one. :3 (Let's hope Sweden's irrelevant misfortune keeps up...)

Turkey's Parliament called in despite the summer holiday, but supposedly not for Sweden/NATO according to TT.

At least now it becomes difficult to keep playing the charade that they can't, if they wanted to.

hey what happened

@nmehndir Apparently this: https://apnews.com/article/nato-turkey-sweden-erdogan-90c8dc9eca976cabebeaa5bfee4d1904

Turkey’s parliament won’t ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid before October, Erdogan says

Turkey’s president says Sweden’s NATO membership bid won’t be ratified by Turkey’s parliament before October.

Is my read correct that the below linked question is the main hinge for this question? (As well as other, smaller ones)

@HenriThunberg I think so too. However, this question is not completely clear what the actual „join“ event is.

@MaxPayne The original metaculus market: "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the January 1, 2024, declares that Sweden has joined NATO". Obviously here the date is different.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/

Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?

The aggregate of 923 Metaculus community forecasters was 94% on Jul 12, 2023.

I believe Hungary is going to vote on this after the summer recess. Is there some reason to be confident they'll convene an extraordinary session to vote on this?

@na_pewno I don't see any reason for urgency. Sweden is already collaborating closely with NATO troops and there is no immediate risk for them.

On the other hand, maybe Stoltenberg is on a roll. 😆

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359

https://www.ft.com/content/cf7f5967-a524-4e0c-ab12-b2bf4ca70472

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Erdogan links Sweden NATO ascendence to Turkey EU membership

No one's noted this yet, so I will.

I am not convinced that Sweden will join NATO at any point until the current de facto ruling ideology of Turkey changes or NATO drops its universal vetos. Additionally, I do not believe that any Western power will have the guts to coup Erdogan, either.

This is fine, though - Finland is in NATO now, and it's not like Putin can seriously invade Sweden given that the two countries don't even share a land border. Any such invasion would have to go through Norway (in NATO), Finland (soon to be in NATO), or be a primarily naval invasion from the Kaliningrad Oblast through the Baltic Sea (not remotely stealthy, would piss off like a dozen bordering NATO members, probably wouldn't even work).

Below: a picture of the above. Note particularly how utterly garbage the entirety of the two land attack routes would be if Russia tried to invade or really fight at all in winter.

In conclusion, Sweden is going to become Austria/Switzerland/Lichtenstein. (Or to a lesser extent Serbia/Kosovo. Or Ireland, if you really squint.)

@Lorxus ok if I lose 100 mana on No, I am blaming you Mr Smart Guy with Maps

@Lorxus So, has this aged like milk?

@ScipioFabius Not as far as I'm concerned. I'll start worrying when Erdogan does anything substantive.

@ScipioFabius So, has this aged like milk?

@Lorxus My comment certainly has, I was certainly too rash. Especially seeing how neither Turkey nor Hungary are voting on it anytime soon. I do still believe Sweden will join NATO, however.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-eeb46646206b

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-f677c48dd2b7

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d