resolves no

Are there not enough days for left in October for this to happen?

@BTE For Finalnd it took 13 days from Erdogan's approval to passing in Turkish parliament, though no reason it can' be faster.

@JCE can't*

@JCE And Finland*

The only US F-16 contact Turkey is going to get anytime soon (tongue in cheek, not investment advice)

https://reuters.omni.se/u-s-shoots-down-turkish-drone-in-syria-officials/a/pQe7nG

Why did this jump up today? The only news I see is negative news

Interestingly Polymarket also had a spike and I don't know why.

@jack i was also confused, I think it's because Menendez is likely to leave the Senate on corruption charges and he was a key opposer of selling Turkey F-16s? That's the best I could come up with

@such Actually there was another piece of positive news and I bid this market up before anyone on polymarket did. It's not super easily indexable on search engines. Anyway, I think 40-45% is about right.

@SemioticRivalry you're thinking about the below?

"Cardin, who attended a gathering of NATO ambassadors this week, said Turkey has indicated it would clear the way for Sweden’s membership in the first part of October."

@HenriThunberg yes, that's it

https://www.voanews.com/a/turkish-lawmakers-delay-vote-on-sweden-nato-membership/7288725.html

Turkish Lawmakers Delay Vote on Sweden’s NATO Membership

Sweden's bid to join NATO is heading for a delay as Turkey's parliament starts a new session this Sunday without the NATO enlargement vote on the agenda. As Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, delaying a vote on Sweden's NATO membership puts Turkey on a collision course with the U.S.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-sweden-join-nato-by

Polymarket | Will Sweden join NATO by...?

Polymarket | This is a market group over by which date Sweden will have joined NATO.

@JonasVollmer What’s Polymarket?

Turkey planning to ratify in October https://www.reuters.com/world/swedish-foreign-minister-still-hopeful-turkey-will-ratify-nato-bid-oct-2023-09-01/
After Turky's ratification of Finland, it only took three days until full membership.

Swedish foreign minister still hopeful Turkey will ratify NATO bid in October

The Swedish foreign minister said on Friday he remained hopeful that Turkey will ratify Sweden's planned NATO membership when the Turkish parliament reconvenes in October, as agreed with President Tayyip Erdogan at a summit of the alliance in July.

@konstan But there's still the question of Hungary

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-taunts-sweden-over-stalled-nato-bid/

Hungary taunts Sweden over stalled NATO bid

Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó writes letter baiting his Swedish counterpart.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-eeb46646206b

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-f677c48dd2b7

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d