If Erdogan is re-elected, will Sweden join NATO by July?
Politics•Geopolitics•NATO•Sweden•Turkey
34
193
Ṁ630
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

If Erdogan is not re-elected by the close date, this resolves N/A no matter if Sweden joins NATO.

Resolves YES if Sweden has officially joined NATO before July 1, 2023. For Finland that was April 4. Just an announcement or joining on July 1 is not sufficient.

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https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-eeb46646206b

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-f677c48dd2b7

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d

predicted NO

Similar question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16559/conditional-sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/

Fix description please!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Lorxus Could you be more specific? I fixed the spelling of Finland but I don't see anything else to fix. :

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@marktweise My fault! I misread the first paragraph.

I have no idea why manifold thinks erdogan is a significant factor in Sweden membership, given Italy and other countries are already shitholes.

@EjueWuueuw if it's an issue of turkey blocking Sweden on legal grounds that's just absurd and america is the biggest supporter of kurds, it was never an issue

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