Will Sweden join NATO by the end of November?
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resolved Nov 30
Resolved
NO

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predicted NO

Turkey demands Sweden silence journalists, shut down news outlet to secure NATO bid approval

https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/11/turkey-demands-sweden-silence-journalists-shut-down-news-outlet-to-secure-nato-bid-approval/

It’s not clear to me why this is so much lower than the “before 2024” markets. Is there another NATO meeting in December that I am unaware of?

predicted NO

@JimAusman This market is correctly priced, the “before 2024” one is just overpriced by @BTE that has a lot of sunk cost in it.

sold Ṁ17 of NO

YES is a steal at 10%.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/11/15/hungary-not-ready-ratify-swedens-nato-application/ It increasingly looks like Hungary is in fact going to be last.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Considering a) that markets for Sweden joining NATO by 2024 are trading at around 70%, b) that there are important NATO meetings at the end of November, c) that Turkey is likely to vote on Thursday and ratify soon after, and d) that Hungary has signaled they won't be the last man standing and that Orban knows he's treading on this ice as it is in Europe, gonna agree with @BTE that this market seems a bit underpriced to me 🤷‍♂️. made a more specific market for anyone with better insights though:

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@such There are some limit orders at 30-35% for you if you’re interested.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Sweden will be allowed accession to NATO. However, it will not be before the end of November. Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in May of 2022. While Finland was able to join in April of this year, Sweden’s accession has been delayed by Turkey before finally signing the Protocol on Sweden's NATO Accession at the end of October. The Hungarian government had previously stated that it wouldn’t be the last NATO ally to ratify Sweden’s accession. However, they haven’t agreed on Sweden’s membership yet and have been asked to do so again recently. The members of the Hungarian Parliament now have to make the decision and they don’t seem to be in a hurry to do so in regards to Sweden's hostile attitude towards Budapest and criticism of their prime minister Orban.

predicted YES

Turkey's parliament has already announced they will vote in committee on this Thursday, leaving just two more steps, a vote of the full assembly and Erdogan's signature. It appears the goal is to approve Sweden in time for them to participate in the NATO meetings at the end of the month.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@BTE What about Hungary?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@NicoDelon See my comment below. Orban has said Hungary won't be last country to ratify. They could literally vote any day, basically whenever he tells them to.

predicted YES

@BTE But I still don’t understand. They haven’t ratified. When will they do it?

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Sometime before the end of next week I suspect.

predicted YES

@BTE Hum. Would be reassuring to have an announcement from them too.

predicted YES

@LasseRasinen Thanks.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

https://www.thelocal.se/20231114/turkey-moves-closer-to-ratification-of-swedish-nato-application

"Hungary and Turkey are the only Nato countries left which need to approve Sweden’s application, and Hungarian president Viktor Orbán has pledged previously that his country will not be the last to ratify.

If Turkey ratifies next week and Orbán keeps his promise, Swedish foreign minister Tobias Billström would be able to participate in Nato’s next meeting in Brussels on November 28th as a full member."

bought Ṁ10 of NO
bought Ṁ10 of NO