Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
8
150αΉ2962030
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Minor constituent as in frozen conflict zone/exclave. Resolves YES if Ukraine declares war (or special military action, etc) on, annexes, or invades Transnistria, Abkhazia, or Kaliningrad. (They are already so with the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimean Republics regardless of your own view and will not count towards market resolution.) Still resolves yes even if they immediately cede the land to someone else, eg Transnistria to Moldova, or Kaliningrad to Poland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frozen_conflict#/media/File:Geopolitics_South_Russia2.png
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
21% chance
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030?
19% chance
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
42% chance
Will Russia be invaded by foreign troops (other than Ukrainian, >10000) before 2060?
20% chance
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
15% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
5% chance
Will Russia officially recognize Crimea, Donetsk, or Luhansk as part of Ukraine before 2030?
22% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?
28% chance