Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
31
100αΉ29k2030
16%
chance
3
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i will resolve this market according to my subjective opinion. i will try to consider and understand the opinions of people commenting on this market.
i will not trade on this market.
if any of the conditions below apply for >=7 days before 2030, the market resolves "yes".
if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves "yes".
if ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in or before 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition "if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves 'yes'", the >=7 days must be consecutive.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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