Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
28
100Ṁ22k
2030
15%
chance

i will resolve this market according to my subjective opinion. i will try to consider and understand the opinions of people commenting on this market.

i will not trade on this market.

if any of the conditions below apply for >=7 days before 2030, the market resolves "yes".

if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves "yes".

if ukraine gov seems very pro russia to me in or before 2030, i will then resolve to "yes".

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the condition "if russia occupies kyiv or control it militarily for >=7 days this market resolves 'yes'", the >=7 days must be consecutive.

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