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Bruno's comment that those of us who are pro-Israel refuse to criticize the settlement movement is ridiculous, as are his claims that "pro-Palestine" people just want a two state solution and not to remove Israel - maybe a few Western left-wing types, are like that. I wouldn't mind a two-state solution, but the Palestinians have proven they care much much more about eliminating Israel than about having their own state.
@nathanwei can go on for ages debating about this conflict history... here's it's just a poll to see which sides are supported related to two ongoing conflicts with similarities as well as controversy
@Quadrifold Sure.
Mostly, I just wanted to say here that some of Bruno's claims are just wrong, like that pro-Israel people won't criticize the settlement movement.
@nathanwei Exactly. The settlement movement is dumb but Palestinians has spent the last 75 years trying to genocide Jews.
It seems that about 2/3 of Manifold is more sympathetic to Israel and 1/3 to Palestine: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/which-side-are-you-more-sympathetic
A cursory glance shows that the 2/3 seem like better forecasters.
Very consistent with here as well. It seems that basically everyone is pro-Ukraine.
@yard nobody mentioned Hamas group. I'm talking about Israel-Palestine conflict, very well known conflict going on since 1948 through different stages.
@yard I guess that it is in fact "universalist" to universally support the underdog, whether the underdog is an innocent nation being attacked by a dictator or by a fundamentalist Islamic terrorist organization.
As you can probably tell I voted Westernist.
@nathanwei Talking about Palestine, not Hamas - Conflict is broader and includes also West Bank, not just Gaza and not just after October 7th
@Quadrifold That's true that includes the West Bank, where Israel is indeed doing some bad stuff (especially under this government). But it also includes Green Line Israel, which is the root of the conflict. A bit strange to me that people who do support Israel's existence within the Green Line would self-ID as pro-Palestine and not pro-Israel. That's the root of the conflict. I definitely do not support the irredentism of the present government and want Gantz as PM ASAP (current polls look great).
I would guess that WB settlements have a low approval rating on Manifold.
@BrunoParga Yeah, in 2024 when polls show that Israelis are fed up with Netanyahu and his friends like Ben-Gvir and are going to them him out after the water, and Palestinians love Hamas and PIJ and hate Fatah, it's more than a bit dishonest to associate Israel so strongly with Netanyahu and then say Hamas is not the Palestinians.
@BrunoParga Gaza, not Palestine. Elected in 2007 - Around 50% of people in Gaza are under 18 yo, so most of Gaza's didn't vote for Hamas.
@nathanwei Israeli public opinion is very well aligned with Nethanyahu and co. they voted them in power for decades. Hamas controlling the Gaza strip is also a result of years of Netanyahu funding them in order to keep it divided from West Bank.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/netanyahu-money-to-hamas-part-of-strategy-to-keep-palestinians-divided-583082
@Quadrifold Hamas is the democratically elected government of Palestine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election
The PNA didn't yield power to Hamas, so they seized it in Gaza in 2007.
It is not Israel's fault that Palestinian leadership won't hold new elections; they won't because they know Hamas would win even bigger this time. If Gazans didn't overwhelmingly support Hamas, the current war would already be over because they would hand the terrorists to Israel on a silver platter.
@Quadrifold I'm really curious what you meant by stating that. I'm not contesting it is true, but I didn't really see the connection between it and the remainder of the conversation, you see? 🙂
@Quadrifold I'm no fan of Bibi, but I would hardly call his policy of letting Qatar send money to Gaza (a mistake to be sure), while doing security cooperation with Fatah against Hamas in the West Bank "propping up Hamas". Israel props up Fatah and foiled assassination plots against Abbas. Palestinian public opinion is behind not only Hamas but other rejectionist groups like PIJ who did a lot of 10/7.
As I am sure @BrunoParga knows (hence the reason for his witty comment), Fatah is in power in the West Bank because Israel is propping them up. Israel works with the Fatah government against Hamas in the West Bank and fights Fatah's rivals in the West Bank. Israel is going into Jenin and fighting the Jenin Brigades - who were founded by PIJ's Jamil al-Almouri are not Hamas and not Fatah. It's not too different than in Afghanistan with the Ghani government and the Taliban.
As Palestine is under occupation you can expect the population to support extremist parties, right? the point you make is that should be Palestinian duty to vote for a enlightened government that will get rid of terrorists and will be able to find a everlasting peace in balance with Israel, a bit utopistic imho. While Israel stopping the illegal settlements and respect international borders would be much easier and will give them the advantage to be on the right side.
BTW I don't want to debate this conflict in depth, the point of the poll is simply to see if people (correctly imo) supporting Ukrainian resistance against Russian invasion apply the same international law framework when applied to another conflict that sees 'The West', in this case US-backed Israel, non respecting borders and occupying Palestinian territories, not to mention flatten a whole area as happened in Gaza without any concern for civilian population, and currently in the ICJ for potential genocide.
@Quadrifold with all due respect, I think your view of the conflict is superficial and based on very little of the history of the region.
@BrunoParga that's for sure. If you're claiming your view is very deep and full of historical knowledge, I just suggest you other places to teach, what is asked here it's only a poll opinion.
@BrunoParga You didn't even vote in the poll, right? Anyway, the idea that Palestinian rejectionism is a result of Israeli occupation rather than a cause of it is absurd...
@nathanwei what year would you say "Palestinian rejectionism" began, and what year did "Israeli occupation" begin?
@BrunoParga It's hard to place a start date on Palestinian rejectionism, it happened for as long as the conflict has been going on. Since at least the 1929 riots in Hebron and other places. Well before the end of the Mandate, before the Peel Commission, before the Partition plan, well before 1948 when Israel even became a country. Israeli occupation began in 1967. Arabs in Israel were under military rule from 1948-1966 though. Palestinians view the existence of Israel from 1948 as an occupation but even then, this is almost 20 years after the 1929 riots.
So I'll say "1929 minus" and "1967".
@nathanwei I'd read your comment backwards, and now I see we mostly agree.
I wouldn't say Palestinian rejectionism is the cause of Israel seizing Gaza, the West Bank and the Golan from Egypt, Jordan and Syria respectively - the cause for that is those nations' aggression against Israel.
Palestinian rejectionism since at least 1920 (the first Arab riots in the Mandate) is the cause of them not having a state yet, though.
@nathanwei oh and by the way, it makes me extremely happy that the creator of this market explicitly, overtly doesn't want to educate themself the get a more informed, more correct opinion. From the inside the feeling appears similar to schadenfreude, although it is clearly not the same.
@BrunoParga I'll also say that even according to the Palestinian narrative where 1948 Israel is an occupation (a narrative that I don't subscribe to), it should be noted that the 1929 riots killed off support for the Brit Shalom group, who favored a binational state.
You're right of course that Palestinian rejectionism is not the proximate cause of Israel seizing those territories in the Six-Day War. Without Palestinian rejectionism though, Arafat or Abbas would actually have accepted a state in the last 30 years, the conflict would be solved, and the occupation would be over. So yes, Palestinian rejectionism is the proximate cause of continued Israeli occupation and lack of Palestinian statehood. That is what I was going for in my message. There are certainly some noxious irredentist Ben-Gvir types but by and large the continued occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is for security reasons (which I support) and not for irredentist purposes (which I don't). It's worth noting that the settlement project has fortunately mostly failed, and there are maybe only 100-150K settlers outside the main blocs, compared to almost 3 million Palestinians.
Yes, I agree, Palestinian rejectionism is the cause of them not having a state. Absent Palestinian rejectionism, things could have certainly played out differently. 1920 is more complicated, the Trumpeldor thing was the result of a tragic miscommunication. But 1929 was an organized riot with the Mufti cheering it on.
You still didn't vote in the poll though!
@nathanwei the poll concept is fundamentally flawed. Anyone who truly supports universal rights is pro-Ukraine and pro-Israel.