ASI = Artificial Super Intelligence.

Most arguments suggesting that ASI would destroy humanity can be extended to any other entity potentially competing with ASI for resources, including aliens. Are they going to do something about it?

ASI is expected to occur by 2040 at the latest.

In 2040 I will run a poll about what happened (based on the information available then) and resolve accordingly.

• Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarified Resolution Criteria:

  • Great Filter: Resolves to option 1, meaning that there are no technologically advanced aliens that can influence us.

  • Dark Forest: Depends on alien response:

  • Resolves to option 3 if aliens decide to sit by, viewing our ASI as a smaller threat compared to other aliens.

  • Resolves to option 4 if they choose to preemptively attack us.

  • Grabby Aliens: Resolves to option 1 if they are not advanced enough to stop us (with option 1 indicating the absence of technologically advanced aliens able to influence us).

  • Alien Ocean: Also resolves to option 1 unless intervention occurs without physical contact (for example, by sending a warning message).

  • Additional Note: If ASI is inevitable and becomes a paperclip maximizer, these scenarios might evolve; for instance, a civilization developing ASI may rapidly transform an Alien Ocean or Dark Forest scenario into one resembling Grabby Aliens, as long as resource constraints allow.