Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by January 1, 2100, no official government entity, internationally recognized scientific organization (such as NASA, the ESA, or the SETI Institute), or peer-reviewed scientific publication has formally confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence (technosignatures or biological entities originating from outside Earth).

If credible, verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial life is formally announced by a recognized authority before this date, the market resolves to NO. In the event of ambiguous or disputed claims, the market will resolve based on the consensus of major scientific bodies or a formal statement from a G20 nation's space agency confirming the discovery.

Background

The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) and the study of technosignatures remain active fields of scientific inquiry. While various anomalous phenomena—such as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP)—have been the subject of increased government reporting and Congressional hearings in the United States, no definitive evidence confirming the existence of alien life or intelligence has been officially verified or accepted by the broader scientific community to date. This market tracks whether such a formal declaration will occur within the specified timeframe.

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