If a frontier AI lab will exist outside the US before 2026, where will it be located?
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17
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resolved Nov 11
100%5%
Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, GCC countries or Israel
33%
Canada, UK or Australia
23%
EU countries plus Switzerland
21%
Mainland China (incl. Hong Kong)
18%
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore

If this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16640/non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026/# on Metaculus resolves NO, I will resolve NA. If it resolves YES, where will the lab be located?

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Per Epoch, Falcon-180B's training compute (3.78e+24 FLOP) is within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, GPT-4 (2.1e+25 FLOP).

Falcon-180B is a project of the Technology Innovation Institute based in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

The question resolves Yes as of Falcon-180B's publication date of Sep 6, 2023.

@bessarabov Cool! I suspect that the ship (or ships) will fly the flag of some country and therefore in principle should be subject to its laws, according to the legal doctrine of the open high seas. If that is the case this will counts towards resolution for the country they fly the flag of (if it's one of those listed here). E.g. if they fly the Turkish flag this will count as "Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, GGC countries, or Israel"

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