Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?
9
Ṁ125Ṁ179Dec 31
80%
Anthropic
64%
Google Deepmind
19%
Deepseek
17%
xAI
17%
Open AI
Will not bet on this market. Will resolve based on general sentiment, as reflected in highly upvoted LW posts, major articles, etc.
For calibration, my current read of the general sentiment of the AI safety community is that the median person currently trusts Anthropic (and maybe somewhat Deepmind).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
53% chance
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
40% chance
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
35% chance
A top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
18% chance
Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
34% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
72% chance
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
50% chance
Who is winning among frontier AI companies?
Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
31% chance