32% chance. Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK. Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span. A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning. I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here. Government grants and contracts do not count. The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control. Similarly, court orders to halt due to legal issues do not count.