If this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16640/non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026/# on Metaculus resolves NO, I will resolve NA. If it resolves YES and the AI lab is located in France (including French Guyana, etc.) I will resolve YES. If it is located elsewhere I will resolve NO. If there is more than one frontier AI lab at the time of resolution and at least one is in France and meets the definition in that question I will resolve YES.
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Per Epoch, Falcon-180B's training compute (3.78e+24 FLOP) is within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, GPT-4 (2.1e+25 FLOP).
Falcon-180B is a project of the Technology Innovation Institute based in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
The question resolves Yes as of Falcon-180B's publication date of Sep 6, 2023.
Conditional on the lab being in Europe: https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/if-the-first-nonus-frontier-ai-lab?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw
