MANIFOLD
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
20
Ṁ1.6kṀ2.4k
2028
64%
Other
6%
Paul Christiano
5%
Jason Matheny
3%
Alka Patel
3%
Max Tegmark
3%
Natasha Crampton
3%
David Barnes
2%
Ajeya Cotra
2%
Yoshua Bengio
2%
Chris Olah
1.4%
Margaret Mitchell
1%
Timnit Gebru

If this market https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/will-a-regulatory-body-modeled-on-t?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw resolves YES, who will head the new agency?

Feel free to add options, starting off with 'Other' and 'Neel Nanda'.

The 'head of the agency' is be the person who has most decisional power as formally bestowed upon him/her by the charter of the agency.

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?
16% chance. By the end of 2027 will a regulatory body specifically for AI exist in the US that will be referred to as "FDA for AI" or similar by at least two mainstream media outlets? Explicit mention of FDA is necessary for YES resolution. The body may regulate something broader than AI, for instance advanced computer systems in general, or something narrower, for instance agentic AI/autonomous systems; but it regulating at least some aspect of AI is needed for YES resolution.
Market context
US Politics
AI
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