Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it? | Manifold

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

20

1.6kṀ2320

2028

64%

Other

6%

Paul Christiano

5%

Jason Matheny

3%

Alka Patel

3%

Max Tegmark

3%

Natasha Crampton

3%

David Barnes

2%

Chris Olah

2%

Ajeya Cotra

2%

Yoshua Bengio

1.4%

Margaret Mitchell

1%

Timnit Gebru

If this market https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/will-a-regulatory-body-modeled-on-t?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw resolves YES, who will head the new agency?

Feel free to add options, starting off with 'Other' and 'Neel Nanda'.

The 'head of the agency' is be the person who has most decisional power as formally bestowed upon him/her by the charter of the agency.

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

16% chance. By the end of 2027 will a regulatory body specifically for AI exist in the US that will be referred to as "FDA for AI" or similar by at least two mainstream media outlets? Explicit mention of FDA is necessary for YES resolution. The body may regulate something broader than AI, for instance advanced computer systems in general, or something narrower, for instance agentic AI/autonomous systems; but it regulating at least some aspect of AI is needed for YES resolution.

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Who will be the next FDA Administrator?

Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"?

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care by 2025?

Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?

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Will AI get regulated after the US president election until the end of 2025?

Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?

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