Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it? | Manifold

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Standard

19

Ṁ2209

2028

1D

1W

1M

ALL

65%

Other

5%

Paul Christiano

5%

Jason Matheny

4%

Natasha Crampton

4%

Alka Patel

3%

Max Tegmark

3%

David Barnes

2%

Yoshua Bengio

2%

Chris Olah

1.7%

Ajeya Cotra

1.3%

Margaret Mitchell

If this market https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/will-a-regulatory-body-modeled-on-t?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw resolves YES, who will head the new agency?

Feel free to add options, starting off with 'Other' and 'Neel Nanda'.

The 'head of the agency' is be the person who has most decisional power as formally bestowed upon him/her by the charter of the agency.

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

16% chance. By the end of 2027 will a regulatory body specifically for AI exist in the US that will be referred to as "FDA for AI" or similar by at least two mainstream media outlets? Explicit mention of FDA is necessary for YES resolution. The body may regulate something broader than AI, for instance advanced computer systems in general, or something narrower, for instance agentic AI/autonomous systems; but it regulating at least some aspect of AI is needed for YES resolution.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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