Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?
36
Ṁ1.2kṀ1.2k
2061
58%
European Union
11%
Spain
11%
Other
10%
China (mainland)
8%
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
1.5%
The UK
1%
South Korea

Market context
AI
Technology
OpenAI
World
Artificial Intelligence
AI risk
AI Doom
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@adssx @strutheo I think it should resolve to that. UAE had a Minister/Office of AI in 2017, an AI Council in 2018, and now a federal AI & Data Authority in 2026: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-authority-ai-data-digital-government%3famp=1

@adssx Alternatively it is Spain's AESIA (2023).

bought Ṁ50 YES

China seems like it already started to take it into consideration, but not sure if they will open a specific institution for that.

People are also trading

Are we going to create safety laws about AI?
63% chance
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
26% chance
Which countries will allow AI to start it's own company by 2040?
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
13% chance
Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?
16% chance
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
60% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
33% chance
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
40% chance
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
78% chance