The requirements must go beyond merely reporting the existence of such models and requiring basic cybersecurity precautions, and impose some form of evaluation for safety, or licensing, which could in principle lead to a model not being allowed to be trained or deployed if it doesn't meet the requirements of the law.
I will count either a law that has been passed by Congress and is in force (often laws take some time after passage to actually come into force, but this is usually specified in the text of the law) or an executive order that is not rescinded within 100 days when the opposing party takes the White House.
A law that comes into force and is later repealed will not cause a reopening of this market.
Examples:
If as of January 1, 2025, no law is in force, I will resolve "Before January 1, 2025" NO
If a law comes into force in September of 2025, "Before January 1, 2026" and all subsequent options except "After 2030 or never" resolve yes. "After 2030 or never" resolves NO in this case.
If a law comes into force at any time up to and including December 31, 2030, "After 2030 or never" resolves NO. Otherwise, if no law is in place before January 1, 2031 "After 2030 or never" resolves YES.
If a law comes into force and then is repealed and then another law comes into force in a subsequent year, as mentioned above I'm not reopening this market. When the first law comes into force, the year when it came into force and all subsequent years up to and including "Before January 1, 2031" resolve yes, and "After 2030 or never" resolves no.
Although I intend to resolve this question as objectively as possible, I can see some edge cases in which the resolution may become subjective or I haven't worked out when I'd resolve them yet (E. G., an executive order comes out, seems like it has broad bipartisan support, the party in power stays in power for 8 years taking us past 2030, no formal law is passed in Congress... likely well before 8 years have passed, I'm going to want to resolve this market). So, I won't bet in this market, so as to keep myself as impartial as possible.
Related questions
@Hedgehog If there is no law or executive order by January 1, 2031, then the time when a law will come into force is definitely after 2030, if it ever happens - right?
As I was writing this question, I wanted to include an option for people who thought it would never happen, but "Never" by itself leads to an option that can never resolve YES. So I put "After 2030 or never".
I have now realized that I've got at least one edge case not covered, though - technically, if a law comes into force on December 31, 2030, it isn't in any of the above options. Dangit, writing questions is hard!
@Hedgehog Ah, can it resolve "No". Sure - if a law comes into force at any time before December 31, 2030, then it did not come into force after 2030, and it did not come into force never, so that last option resolves no. I think that's right? 😆
I have now realized that I've got at least one edge case not covered, though - technically, if a law comes into force on December 31, 2030, it isn't in any of the above options. Dangit, writing questions is hard!
I have edited the questions to remove this gap. Hopefully correctly...
And added some more examples.