Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if a federal bill primarily regulating the development, deployment, safety, auditing, or licensing of artificial intelligence (AI) is signed into law by the President of the United States (or otherwise becomes federal law, such as through a veto override) between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

• The market resolves to NO if no such federal legislation is enacted into law within this timeframe.

• Source of truth: Enacted legislation must be verifiable on Congress.gov.

• Exclusions:

  • State-level laws (such as legislation passed in California, Colorado, or Illinois) do not qualify.

  • Broad, non-regulatory bills that merely establish advisory committees, fund research initiatives (e.g., the CREATE AI Act), or contain minor, non-binding AI provisions (such as standard defense authorization or spending bills) do not qualify.

• To trigger a YES resolution, the legislation must impose binding regulatory requirements, safety standards, or licensing frameworks on AI developers, deployers, or models. The market creator will make the final determination on borderline cases using consensus from mainstream policy and legal analysis.

Background

While several states have enacted localized AI rules, federal AI legislation in the United States has faced gridlock. Bipartisan efforts have increased in 2026 with proposals like the Stop Rogue AI Act and the FRONTIER Act, which aim to establish independent auditing and mandatory safety guidelines. Key tech companies and industry leaders have also shifted toward supporting federal standards to pre-empt a fragmented patchwork of state-level regulations.