This market resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and the end of November 30, 2026 (EET, UTC+2), an organized pro-Russian armed group establishes de facto physical control over at least one government administration building in any city or town in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. It resolves NO otherwise.

Qualifying buildings: Buildings used by a civilian national, regional, or municipal administration, such as a city/town hall or government administrative offices. Private offices, military facilities, and monuments do not count on their own.

Physical control: The group must physically occupy the building and control access to it, excluding the lawful authorities from its normal use. A demonstration outside, flag-raising, threats, or an unsuccessful incursion does not count. No minimum holding period is required, but actual control must be established, not merely claimed. Subsequent recapture does not undo a qualifying event; control need not continue until the deadline.

Pro-Russian armed groups: Organized armed formations acting in support of Russia or a Russia-aligned separatist project, including militias, proxy forces, paramilitary groups, and Russian regular military units. Language, ethnicity, or Russian citizenship alone is not sufficient.

Evidence: At least two independent reputable news organizations must corroborate the qualifying event, for example Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or established national media. Syndicated copies of one report count as a single source. Claims by a government or the armed group alone are insufficient. Reports published after the deadline may be used if they establish that the event occurred within the specified period.

The event window ends at 00:00 EET on December 1, 2026 (22:00 UTC on November 30; 01:00 Moscow time on December 1).