Kaliningrad has lost strategic importance for Russia as Finland (and possibly Sweden) join NATO and contribute additional routes for supply lines to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania outside of the the Suwałki Gap and provide increased control of the Baltic Sea.

Kaliningrad has had a separatist movement since 1993. Kaliningrad also is sanctioned by the EU, limiting goods crossing the border.

With a reduction in geopolitical importance, a drawdown of troops and supplies to support the invasion of Ukraine, and increased local political pressures, will Kaliningrad be an independent state by the end of 2026?

This will resolve to Yes if any of the United Nations Security Council nations recognize Kaliningrad as independent from Russia.