An opportunity to join in on https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.