Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)?

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resolved Feb 24

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Volt managed to get 2.6% of the (German) votes in the EU parliament elections (2024). In the election of the Bundestag, there is a 5% hurdle. Therefore, the party needs to gain more voter share to have seats and be part of the Bundestag.

Feel free to ask for clarification in the comments.

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https://manifold.markets/Transparent/will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next-y6Rgtqh29n?play=true

I voted for Volt because I want european parties on european elections. But they don't have any unique stance on a national level. I would never vote for them nationally and I can't imagine that they perform better than in the EU election.

Would this include the case where Volt doesn't clear the 5% hurdle, but wins a direct mandate or defectors from other lists?

Yes, I will resolve any edge case as YES, if Volt ends up with seats in the Bundestag.

Does the question still apply if the Bundestag election happens this year?

Yes, I will resolve based on the next Bundestag election.

bought Ṁ50 YES

trying to manifest reality

bought Ṁ100 NO

I dig them and will probably vote for them, but doubling the European election vote in an election with the 5% bar will be difficult to say the least. Thanks for creating the market.

The incredible marketing budget they threw at the EU elections proves they’re not limited by funding.

However, 5% on a federal level will likely be too difficult to clear if well-established parties like FDP and die Linke are at risk of dropping out, even if they manage to improve upon their current results.

I suppose it might come down to how much more populist they decide to act going forward, since this is what wins elections nowadays.