Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the government coalition currently led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (comprising the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the Social Democratic Party) remains in power until the next scheduled federal election. The market will resolve to NO if the coalition dissolves, a new government is formed, or a snap election is called prior to the next scheduled federal election in early 2029.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Government, the Federal President, or the Bundestag confirming the stability or formal dissolution of the governing coalition. Authoritative sources include the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin) and major credible news outlets reporting on German government changes.

Background

The 21st German Bundestag was constituted on March 25, 2025, following early federal elections held on February 23, 2025. According to the Basic Law of Germany, regular federal elections must be held no earlier than 46 months and no later than 48 months after the start of a legislative session. Consequently, the next federal election is scheduled to take place between January and March 2029.

As of May 2026, the federal government is a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The coalition has faced challenges related to economic stagnation, internal policy disputes, and political pressure from opposition parties, including the AfD. The stability of this coalition remains a key focus of German political discourse as it navigates structural reforms and economic headwinds.

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