Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)?
Basic
35
8.8k
2025
19%
chance

Volt managed to get 2.6% of the (German) votes in the EU parliament elections (2024). In the election of the Bundestag, there is a 5% hurdle. Therefore, the party needs to gain more voter share to have seats and be part of the Bundestag.

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I voted for Volt because I want european parties on european elections. But they don't have any unique stance on a national level. I would never vote for them nationally and I can't imagine that they perform better than in the EU election.

Would this include the case where Volt doesn't clear the 5% hurdle, but wins a direct mandate or defectors from other lists?

Yes, I will resolve any edge case as YES, if Volt ends up with seats in the Bundestag.

Does the question still apply if the Bundestag election happens this year?

Yes, I will resolve based on the next Bundestag election.

bought Ṁ50 YES

trying to manifest reality

bought Ṁ100 NO

I dig them and will probably vote for them, but doubling the European election vote in an election with the 5% bar will be difficult to say the least. Thanks for creating the market.

The incredible marketing budget they threw at the EU elections proves they’re not limited by funding.

However, 5% on a federal level will likely be too difficult to clear if well-established parties like FDP and die Linke are at risk of dropping out, even if they manage to improve upon their current results.

I suppose it might come down to how much more populist they decide to act going forward, since this is what wins elections nowadays.

bought Ṁ15 YES

If the SPD takes policy points from the AFD and the Greens have to follow the SPD, there could be a chance

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