https://manifold.markets/Transparent/will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next-y6Rgtqh29n?play=true

I voted for Volt because I want european parties on european elections. But they don't have any unique stance on a national level. I would never vote for them nationally and I can't imagine that they perform better than in the EU election.

Would this include the case where Volt doesn't clear the 5% hurdle, but wins a direct mandate or defectors from other lists?

Yes, I will resolve any edge case as YES, if Volt ends up with seats in the Bundestag.

Does the question still apply if the Bundestag election happens this year?

Yes, I will resolve based on the next Bundestag election.

trying to manifest reality

I dig them and will probably vote for them, but doubling the European election vote in an election with the 5% bar will be difficult to say the least. Thanks for creating the market.

The incredible marketing budget they threw at the EU elections proves they’re not limited by funding.

However, 5% on a federal level will likely be too difficult to clear if well-established parties like FDP and die Linke are at risk of dropping out, even if they manage to improve upon their current results.

I suppose it might come down to how much more populist they decide to act going forward, since this is what wins elections nowadays.

If the SPD takes policy points from the AFD and the Greens have to follow the SPD, there could be a chance