Order of parties in the answer does not matter, "CDU - SPD" is equivalent to "SPD - CDU".
Feel free to add additional answers if you feel like it!
Have fun predicting!
Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Only the parties that actually form the government will be considered for resolution.
Added the option "Union alone".
Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Resolution Criteria: Only parties that either sign a coalition agreement or have a minister count as forming the government.
Implications:
A minority government where ministers are non-party members will resolve as that party alone.
A government with ministers from other parties without an official coalition agreement will resolve as a multi-party outcome.
1,000What if the SPD and Greens formed some alliance when negotiating a coalition with CDU/CSU? Then the likelihood of the Union-Grüne-SPD option heavily depends on the question if SPD and Greens combined get more seats than the Union! See this market for some probabilities.
@marktwse The Union and the FDP showed that they are willing to bring in laws that have a majority without the greens and the SPD. Combined with the knowledge that if they can't fulfil their promises, in the next election the AFD will come out on top, I think they showed that if green and SPD are unwilling to accept most their program in a coalition, they have an alternative
@LudwigBald how will this resolve in case of a minority government? Only to the parties that form the government, or also to the parties that vote for it? (apparently the latter is the case for the metaculus question)
@dp9000 I will resolve only to the parties that actually form the government. I have added the option "Union alone". Go place your bets as appropriate!
@LudwigBald What about a CDU/CSU minority government which
a) includes ministers who aren't party members (think part "Expertenregierung")
b) includes ministers from other parties, but there is no official coalition
Which of those will resolve "Union alone" or "other"? (I know this is highly unlikely, but politica seems to keep moving towards ever weirder outcomes)
@Primer I will resolve to all parties that either sign a coalition agreement or have a minister.
So a) would resolve to Union alone, b) would resolve to Union+<other party>