Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the individual who is officially elected Federal Chancellor of Germany (Bundeskanzler) by the German Bundestag following the federal election scheduled for early 2029 (or any early election terminating the 21st Bundestag), and subsequently receives their certificate of appointment from the Federal President pursuant to Article 63 of the Basic Law.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will rely on official announcements from the German Bundestag (bundestag.de) and the Federal Chancellery (bundeskanzler.de) confirming the appointment and swearing-in.

• Timing: Resolution occurs as soon as the post-election government formation process concludes and the Chancellor takes office. If an acting or caretaker chancellor serves during coalition negotiations, the market will remain open until a Chancellor is formally elected and appointed for the new parliamentary term.

• Snap/Early Elections: If an early federal election is called prior to 2029 that replaces the incumbent legislature, this market will resolve to the Chancellor elected after the subsequent federal election that constitutes the 22nd Bundestag (or the scheduled 2029 election cycle).

• Other: If the appointed Chancellor does not match any individually listed option, the market will resolve to "Other."

Background

Under Article 63 of the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz), the Federal Chancellor is not directly elected by voters, but by the members of the Bundestag without debate upon nomination by the Federal President. Because German federal elections almost always produce coalition parliaments, the election of the Chancellor typically follows weeks or months of inter-party coalition negotiations after the general election.

The next regular federal election to determine the composition of the 22nd Bundestag must legally take place in early 2029 (between January and March 2029).