Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Reform UK (led by Nigel Farage) and Restore Britain (led by Rupert Lowe) officially announce a formal electoral pact, alliance, or party merger.

To qualify, the agreement must meet at least one of the following conditions:

• Electoral Pact / Alliance: A formal, public agreement in which both parties commit to standing down candidates in designated constituencies to avoid splitting the vote in a future Westminster general election.

• Party Merger: An official integration or merger of Reform UK and Restore Britain into a single political entity.

• Formal Coalition: A registered joint coalition pact or formal alliance recognized by the UK Electoral Commission.

This market will resolve to NO if no such formal agreement is announced before the next UK general election, or if either Nigel Farage or Rupert Lowe permanently ceases to lead their respective parties without a pact having been established.

Note: The market creator may edit this description to specify a preferred, fixed cutoff date.

Background

Following the Greater Manchester mayoral election in mid-2026, where a split right-wing vote between Reform UK and Restore Britain contributed to a comfortable victory for Labour, Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe extended an "olive branch" to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to "unite the patriotic right".

Lowe, a former Reform MP who split from the party in 2025 to launch the further-right Restore Britain, proposed five core conditions for cooperation. These conditions included a referendum on the death penalty, a ban on the burka, mass deportations, and the exclusion of former Conservative ministers from any future cabinet.

While Farage confirmed he has "reached out" to Lowe and is keeping an "open mind", he immediately rejected the demand to exclude former Tories, stating, "I will never turn my back on my team". This market tracks whether the two leaders will successfully resolve their personal and political differences to form a united front.