Arbitrage:

The war has to be ongoing at the end of 2024?

@FranklinBaldo Shouldn't have to be in my opinion.

By the end of = before the end of. So this should resolve if there's a civil war at any point before the end of 2024. For ongoing you would ask "at the end of".

@UFTG Correct.

How do you define "civil war"?

@PeterWildeford Good question. There seems to already be fighting going on between contingents [1, 2, 3, 4], but I guess it's reasonable to have some sort of "minimum scope requirement" before something is classified as a civil war :)

@TorBarstad number of deaths or control of cities would work