Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?

Question

The Russian civil war of 1917-1923 doesn't count. I only mean a war that started later that the creation of the market (6 May 2023).

Update (25 Jan 2024): after discussion with @PS, I decided that if an edge case arises, I will check Wikipedia and Western media and see if they consistently describe the conflict in question as a civil war. Also, if in doubt, I may or may not temporarily freeze the market and consult the traders, and/or resolve N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (43 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).