Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024?
Will Russia have a civil war by the end of 2024?
resolved by
52
1kṀ9235resolved Jan 25
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ207 | |
| 2 | Ṁ201 | |
| 3 | Ṁ169 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ65 |
People are also trading
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?
45% chance
Will there be a coup attempt in Russia by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Russia be able to escalate the conflict to bloodshed in the balkans region before the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Russia start another major wave of mobilization in 2024
3% chance
Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be >10 deaths in internal conflicts in Russia in 2024?
86% chance
Sort by:
@FranklinBaldo Shouldn't have to be in my opinion.
By the end of = before the end of. So this should resolve if there's a civil war at any point before the end of 2024. For ongoing you would ask "at the end of".
@PeterWildeford Good question. There seems to already be fighting going on between contingents [1, 2, 3, 4], but I guess it's reasonable to have some sort of "minimum scope requirement" before something is classified as a civil war :)
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?
45% chance
Will there be a coup attempt in Russia by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Russia be able to escalate the conflict to bloodshed in the balkans region before the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Russia start another major wave of mobilization in 2024
3% chance
Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be >10 deaths in internal conflicts in Russia in 2024?
86% chance