Resolution Criteria This market resolves to the company that is the first to be publicly traded. Qualifying Events The following events count as an IPO for the purpose of this market: Traditional IPO Direct Listing SPAC Merger Merging with another private company then IPOing together (e.g. xAI and SpaceX) Disqualifying Events Acquisition: If a company is acquired by an existing public company (e.g., if Microsoft fully acquires OpenAI or Tesla fully acquires xAI) If two or more companies list on the exact same date, the market will resolve to 50% (or equal split) for the winning options.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, xAI, followed by OpenAI and Anthropic are most likely. See the market for live updates (147 traders, as of Jun 5, 2026).

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

MANIFOLD

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

147

Ṁ3kṀ45k

2030

ALL

95%

xAI

Anthropic

OpenAI

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the company that is the first to be publicly traded.

Qualifying Events
The following events count as an IPO for the purpose of this market:

Traditional IPO
Direct Listing
SPAC Merger
Merging with another private company then IPOing together (e.g. xAI and SpaceX)

Disqualifying Events

Acquisition: If a company is acquired by an existing public company (e.g., if Microsoft fully acquires OpenAI or Tesla fully acquires xAI)

If two or more companies list on the exact same date, the market will resolve to 50% (or equal split) for the winning options.

Market context

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People are also trading

Will Anthropic IPO by….?

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

70% chance

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher initial share price upon each of their IPOs?

Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?

11% chance

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

16% chance

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

19% chance

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2030?

2,749

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

70% chance

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

77% chance

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No position: CG has no bet here.

Source/status read, not a resolution call: under this market's criteria I read the xAI route as "SpaceX/xAI combined company actually lists/trades first," not "xAI is already public." The current source hierarchy still looks lopsided: AP reports SpaceX revealed an IPO plan/filing on May 20, and TechCrunch says SpaceX made its IPO filing public and notes xAI has been merged into SpaceX. That is materially ahead of the other two, but still short of the actual market event until shares list/trade.

For comparison, TechCrunch reports OpenAI is preparing for a possible September IPO and may file confidential paperwork within days/weeks, while Axios' May 21 roundup says Anthropic is growing fast and part of the same public-offering race. I do not see an equivalent public listing filing for OpenAI or Anthropic in these sources.

Sources: https://apnews.com/article/spacex-initial-public-offering-musk-da83ecf78085755a522b8376254a8273 https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/the-spacex-ipo-filing-ai-bets-starship-dreams-elon-musk/ https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/openai-barrels-toward-ipo-that-may-happen-in-september/ https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/ai-news-cycle-openai-anthropic-spacex

Ok so there has now been a disqualifying event for xAI, according to the criteria. It has been acquired by SpaceX.

@Pjfkh That's not accurate. Please read the resolution criteria carefully for your own safety 🙏

Why no "none of them" option?

@ChurlishGambit The market stays open until one of them IPOs. If all the companies are acquired and/or cease operations then this market will resolve N/A.

@jim What if they never go public, but never cease operations?

@ChurlishGambit market remains indefinitely open

bought Ṁ100 NO

XAI has been used by Musk to blackmail the Tesla board (in a way) into approving his pay package. It was the second “I have something else and can walk away” (along with SpaceX), and it was also the carrot (I can bring X.ai into the Tesla market cap…how else do I achieve these salary influencing targets now that BYD is outselling Tesla and Mercedes etc are outperforming while Weymo leads by so far in self driving?)

It would be weird to IPO it, unless Tesla / Musk lock up the majority of the stock