What will be true about the person who creates AGI?
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36
Ṁ1837
2026
90%
He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator
83%
He will be a citizen of the USA
70%
He will be male
66%
He will be Jewish
61%
As of May 2024 he is already a well-known figure in AI
57%
AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.
40%
He will have attended a Manifest
27%
He will be 30-years-old or younger
6%
He will be transgender
5%
He will have been in space

If there's a generally accepted person it will resolve according to the characteristics of that person.

If there's not a generally accepted person but there is a generally accepted company this resolves to the CEO of that company.

If there is neither a generally accepted person, nor a generally accepted company, these may resolve to prob according to the characteristics of the various candidates.

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AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.
bought Ṁ1 AGI will manifest it... YES

But we'll probably blame Yann Lecun.

This is one of the dumbest questions on Manifold. Entirely pointless and at the same time really badly framed. He this he that, the very idea that for example if Sam Altman is in CEO, then he created ChatGPT, or vice versa if Ilya Sutskever is around during the testing that he created it or that the because the bankrupt waste of space Elon Musk, owned the company, that some how he would have invented Grok it perpetuates the myth of the inventor.

Remember Pierre Curie and Henri Becquerel, they were the inventors and scientists that were nearly given dual Nobel prizes until someone noted that most of the work and thought was done by another person called Curie. History is poor at recognising the actual work of the team that discover things and this is another dumb example of this perpetuated myth of Bruce Wayne, Bruce Banner or Tony Stark. Science is incremental.

It is impossible to imagine that such task would be completed by one person...

@ed no it's not

I would not be surprised if AGI is birthed by a cracked 17 year old forking pirated code from a SF company or something

All these use the masculine pronoun "he". Does that mean that they will only resolve to "yes" if the person goes by these pronouns? This is particuarly confusing given one of the questions is about the person being male.

@Nils just a pronoun for a person of unspecified gender

What are the criteria for well-known? Known among other AI researchers (i.e. Alex Krizhevsky) or well known by the general public, i.e. Sam Altman?

@No_ones_ghost well-known amongst the public e.g. lots of Twitter followers, or a few articles about them in the mainstream press, or whatever.

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