This market resolves to the first entity that officially announces they have created artificial general intelligence (AGI).

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolution is based on official press releases or credible news reports of the announcement

• The entity does not need to have actually achieved AGI (as judged by Manifold) - only the announcement matters

• The announcement must be made with genuine intent (as judged by Manifold). Publicity stunts or trolling will not count

• The announcing entity must be a recognized player in AI development with substantial research capabilities and credibility. This includes major tech companies, established AI labs, leading universities, or government research agencies. Announcements from fringe organizations, companies without significant AI infrastructure, or entities that would be universally dismissed by the AI research community will not count, regardless of sincerity

Important Details:

• Eligible Entities: Any organization can qualify - companies, countries, non-profits, universities, research labs, etc.

• Acceptable Terminology:

  • The announcement must use terms very similar to AGI like:

    • "AGI" or "artificial general intelligence"

    • "Human-level AI"

    • "ASI" or "artificial superintelligence"

  • The following terms are NOT sufficient:

    • "Strong AI"

    • "Transformative AI"

• Joint Announcements: If multiple entities make a joint announcement, all entities included in the statement will resolve as YES

• Verification: Resolution requires either:

  • An official press release from the entity

  • Credible news reports confirming the announcement

• Government Commandeered Companies: If a company has been commandeered by a government, it does NOT count as making the announcement unless the company is explicitly mentioned as a contributor in the statement

• Government Announcements: For the purposes of this market, a country's government is counted as one entity, regardless of which department or agency, or official makes the announcement