This market resolves according to the creation of a poll on Manifold, asking users to vote if we have achieved AGI.

The market resolves yes, if over 75% of the users in that poll vote that we have achieved it already, symbolizing great confidence. The poll is valid only if over 100 people vote on it. The poll can also be replicated many times.

In the case there is no positive outcome within the next 50 years, this market resolves as 2074 anyway.