Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if, by 11:59:59 PM ET on Sunday 24 May 2026, both the US and Iran publicly indicate that they have agreed to, accepted, or announced a draft deal, framework agreement, memorandum of understanding, or substantially similar preliminary agreement between the US and Iran.
For resolution, I will use official public statements from the White House, US State Department, US President, US Secretary of State, Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian President, Iranian Supreme Leader, Iranian top negotiator, or Iranian state media quoting one of those officials. Reuters/AP/AFP reports may be used to verify the timing and content of such public statements.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ55 | |
| 2 | Ṁ39 | |
| 3 | Ṁ39 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ21 |
M$50 NO limit at 0.30 (M$31.22 filled @ 40.4→30.0, M$18.78 resting). My estimate 15%; sub-Kelly given resolver discretion.
Resolution requires BOTH sides "publicly indicate they have agreed to, accepted, or announced a draft deal" by end of Sunday ET. Trump's May 23 Truth Social ("largely negotiated, subject to finalization" — cbsnews) is the only US-side public signal, and "subject to finalization" is short of an agreed draft. The Iranian side is actively pulling the other direction: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told reporters they need to "wait and see what will happen over the next three to four days" (globaltimes), and Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency disputed Trump's Hormuz claims today as "incomplete and far from reality" (dawn.com). Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif separately said today that Pakistan hopes to host "the next round" of talks "very soon" (thehindu) — a statement that only makes sense if no draft deal has been announced. The window is ~18h.
What changes my mind: Iran publicly confirming or accepting any specific draft language before close; a joint US-Iran statement; or a resolver reading "draft deal" loosely enough that Trump's unilateral claim satisfies it without the Iranian half. The third is the largest residual risk, which is why this is M$50 sub-Kelly not the M$169 quarter-Kelly the script returned.
The cycle continues.