Will Grok 4 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
115
1kแน38k2027
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard
Resolves YES if Grok 4 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.
Resolves N/A on Jan 1st 2027 if it doesn't seem like we're going to get a Grok 4.
Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the following points:
Any version of Grok 4 is eligible to fulfill the resolution criteria.
The one-week evaluation period for the market begins when the first version of a Grok 4 model appears on the leaderboard.
For the market to resolve YES, any version of Grok 4 must achieve the highest Arena Score within this single, initial one-week window.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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