MANIFOLD
Will Grok 4 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
115
Ṁ1kṀ39k
resolved Jul 23
Resolved
NO

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

Resolves YES if Grok 4 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.

Resolves N/A on Jan 1st 2027 if it doesn't seem like we're going to get a Grok 4.

  • Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the following points:

    • Any version of Grok 4 is eligible to fulfill the resolution criteria.

    • The one-week evaluation period for the market begins when the first version of a Grok 4 model appears on the leaderboard.

    • For the market to resolve YES, any version of Grok 4 must achieve the highest Arena Score within this single, initial one-week window.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

It's appeared, will wait one week then resolve NO if Grok 4 doesnt get the highest arena score

@jim any version of Grok 4 counts right? Grok 4 heavy?

@bens yes, it can be any version of Grok 4. But this market will resolve one week after a version of Grok 4 first appears on the leaderboard (at the latest). So it can be any version but it has to enter the leaderboard within one week of the first version to do so 🤷

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 36% order

lots of shares at 36%

opened a Ṁ300 YES at 20% order

This market should get some attention

non-reasoning grok 4? as in if there are grok 4 and grok-4-thinking or similar, this market is asking only about grok 4? asking bc i think in a few months the models that top lmarena will be reasoning models most of the time

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