What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Plus
14
Ṁ5982025
1,384.13
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will be resolved two weeks after GPT-5 is available on LMSYS Chatbot Arena.
For reference:
gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 (score 1259) wins against gpt-3.5-turbo-0613 (score 1120) in 69% of battles.
To have a score of about 1400 points GPT-5 has to win 70% or so battles against gpt-4-turbo. 1500 points - 80%, 1600 - 90%, 1700 - 95%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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