What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Mini
12
541
Dec 31
1,384.16
expected

This market will be resolved two weeks after GPT-5 is available on LMSYS Chatbot Arena.


For reference:

gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 (score 1259) wins against gpt-3.5-turbo-0613 (score 1120) in 69% of battles.

To have a score of about 1400 points GPT-5 has to win 70% or so battles against gpt-4-turbo. 1500 points - 80%, 1600 - 90%, 1700 - 95%.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ0 1450-1470 YES

Probably should have set max value around 1600. Oh well...

More related questions