Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the Chinese invasion succeed?
5
12
180
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A

Based on Noah Smith's writing at https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=80290500&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email.

Closes YES if China invades Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases, and the invasion succeeds. Closes NO if that happens and the invasion fails. Closes N/A if China invades Taiwan and preemptively attacks U.S. bases, or if China does not invade Taiwan before the market closes. The market close time will be extended indefinitely if there is an invasion.

I define a "successful" invasion as one where hositilities cease (either due to a formal treaty or at least one month without fighting) and the PRC is in possession of the entire island of Taiwan. A "failed" invasion is one where hostilities cease without the PRC being in possession of the entire island.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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On reflection "succeed" is pretty subjective, so I've sold my shares and will not be betting in this market.

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