If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
45
5.1k
2100
40%
chance

WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits. If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it. I will therefore resolve NO.

Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s. I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment. Feel free to fill my limit order over there.

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Combined with https://manifold.markets/justifieduseofFallibilism/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-f94bef0495a4, it would appear Manifold thinks China's odds of success are slightly higher than 100%.

[Edit for future readers: at time of writing, "China Invades Taiwan" is at 41%, "China Invades Taiwan And Succeeds" is at 42%.]

I think if China invaded, it would likely be successful in taking territory but the costs would be so great it wouldn’t be worth it. If that’s correct and the CCP comes to the same conclusion, then they wouldn’t invade, and therefore this market would resolve No, even though the invasion would be “successful” if they tried. So this market is significantly more biased towards No than the title implies.

@ahalekelly That's true, but that situation--a Pyrrhic victory so utterly Pyrrhic that it has a deterrent effect preventing the victory from happening in the first place--is a situation I'm very comfortable rounding down to failure.

If there's a lot of disagreement here, let me know.

There's a typo: If China invades Taiwan will be invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]