Based on Noah Smith's writing at https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=80290500&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email.

Closes YES if China invades Taiwan and preemptively attacks U.S. bases, and the invasion succeeds. Closes NO if that happens and the invasion fails. Closes N/A if China invades Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases, or if China does not invade Taiwan before the market closes. The market close time will be extended indefinitely if there is an invasion.

I define a "successful" invasion as one where hositilities cease (either due to a formal treaty or at least one month without fighting) and the PRC is in possession of the entire island of Taiwan. A "failed" invasion is one where hostilities cease without the PRC being in possession of the entire island.