Which of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?
2
1kṀ80Dec 31
47%
1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code
50%
1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing
50%
1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security
50%
1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season
50%
3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other
35%
6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards
From https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/8/llm-predictions-for-2026/
If Simon publishes evaluations of his own predictions, I'll resolve accordingly. If no evaluations are forthcoming, I may resolve based on my own judgement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I think “it will be undeniable AI can write good code” will be false because the standard for “good code” will shift as AI improves.
Kind of like how when LLMs got IMO Gold, and proved Erdos problem 205 those things became unimpressive.
As long as there are AI haters and AI exists at a level that isn’t clearly superhuman, there’s going to be lots of people saying it’s bad at what it’s doing.
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