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MANIFOLD
📆What will happen in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
62
Ṁ775Ṁ3.7k
Dec 31
89%
GTA VI Release
87%
GOP loses control of the House
66%
MLB World Series won by the National League team
64%
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
62%
New FKT record for the Appalachian Trail
62%
Chat GPT 6 releases
56%
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
56%
nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)
55%
there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice
50%
Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel
46%
Assassination of an African head of state
44%
Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)
44%
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
36%
Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone
33%
grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa
30%
bitcoin reaches a new all time high
26%
Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital
25%
Joe Biden dies
24%
Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce
17%
North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'H5N1 pandemic declared', the declaration is assumed to be by the USA.

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bought Ṁ44 YES

@strutheo According to Wikipedia, there have been three of these this year: one before the market was created, one the week after the market was created, and one last month. Resolves YES.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2026

bought Ṁ184 NO

@strutheo isn't this just no?

Does Iran's Supreme Leader count as a Head of State? (Media and Wikipedia don't seem to have a definitive view on this - I'd lean towards yes but it's not unambiguous.)

bought Ṁ7 YES

#coolfold 😎

@strutheo wut?

@strutheo (Israel-Hamas Ceasefire) is this referring to the start of another period of conflict then another ceasefire - the current one doesn’t count in its current state? or is it asking if the ceasefire is maintained until the end of the year?

edit - not sure why it removed the quote from the comment - apologies!

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