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MANIFOLD
Will the NY Fed's unemployment rate for recent college graduates reach 7% or higher in any reading for 2027?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ46
2028
37%
chance

Resolves YES if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's "The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates" page reports an unemployment rate of 7.0% or higher for recent college graduates (ages 22 to 27) for any month or quarter in calendar year 2027. Resolves NO if no 2027 reading reaches 7.0% by June 30, 2028. Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. Its 2027 worst-case list included "Entry-level office hiring quietly stops; nobody calls it AI" and "Graduates find the bottom rungs gone." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast and monthly scorecard are free: The Forecast Ledger: 2027, checked October 30, 2026

The Forecast Ledger: 2027, checked October 30, 2026
Every 2027 call from the forecast, what has actually happened so far, and a source for each one. Updated monthly.
Economics
United States
New York
Interest Rates
Inflation
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