Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a seasonally adjusted monthly civilian unemployment rate (U-3) of 5.1% or higher for any month in the calendar year 2026. If no monthly rate in 2026 reaches 5.1% or higher, the market resolves to NO.

• Primary Source: The monthly BLS Employment Situation Summary. The historical series can also be tracked via FRED (UNRATE).

• Scope: Covers the 12 reference months of 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).

• Timing: The market may resolve to YES immediately if any eligible monthly report meets the 5.1% threshold. It will resolve to NO following the publication of the December 2026 report if no month has met the threshold.

• Revisions: Resolution will be based on the data published in the respective monthly release or any official revision available up until the release of the December 2026 report. Revisions published after the final December 2026 report is released will not be considered.

Background

The civilian unemployment rate is a principal economic indicator compiled by the BLS using the Current Population Survey (CPS). It measures the number of unemployed individuals actively seeking work as a percentage of the civilian labor force. In early 2026, the U.S. unemployment rate hovered around 4.3%. This market tracks whether labor market conditions weaken enough to push the headline seasonally adjusted rate to 5.1% or above at any point during 2026.